A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
