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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.